Our primary goal is predicting ADCC World Championship outcomes — the most prestigious event in competitive no-gi grappling. We build ratings from all major no-gi competitions since 1998, with ADCC Worlds and Trials carrying the most weight.
We cover all major no-gi grappling competitions: ADCC (Worlds, Trials, and Opens), WNO, CJI, EBI, Polaris, SUG, Kasai, BJJ Stars, F2W, and selected regional events. For mixed-format events like F2W and BJJ Stars, we include the no-gi matches.
We include a small number of IBJJF No-Gi invitational events but do not yet have comprehensive IBJJF tournament data. We plan to add IBJJF No-Gi Worlds, Pans, and Europeans if we can source complete bracket data — partial data would bias ratings toward athletes whose wins are recorded but losses are missing.
Not all events are equal. ADCC Worlds matches carry nearly twice the weight of regional events. The K-factor multiplier shows how much each tier amplifies rating changes relative to a baseline event.
| Tier | Events | K Weight | Count | Matches | New Player % | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0 | ADCC Worlds / CJI #1 | 1.90x | 16 | 1,664 | 83% | 73.9% |
| 5.0 | ADCC Trials / WNO Championship | 1.40x | 58 | 8,352 | 95% | 72.3% |
| 4.0 | WNO / BJJ Stars / UFC FPI | 1.30x | 75 | 657 | 69% | 69.6% |
| 3.0 | EBI / Polaris / Kasai / IBJJF | 1.20x | 164 | 1,842 | 84% | 75.4% |
| 2.5 | ADCC Opens / SUG / ACBJJ | 1.15x | 133 | 12,412 | 94% | 70.8% |
| 2.0 | F2W / GrappleFest | 1.10x | 229 | 791 | 88% | 72.4% |
| 1.5 | Grappling Industries / Enigma | 1.05x | 44 | 864 | 91% | 78.1% |
| 1.0 | PGF / Regional | 1.00x | 160 | 1,279 | 84% | 77.6% |
Why accuracy varies by tier: ADCC Worlds (Tier 10) has the lowest prediction accuracy because everyone there is elite — upsets are common. Regional events (Tier 1) have the highest accuracy because rating gaps are larger and outcomes more predictable.
Data from 30,054 matches across 885 events (1998-2026). Ratings use standard ELO with margin-of-victory scoring. Full methodology