How likely are you to get submitted? Does winning by submission mean you're better? And what happens when a massive underdog pulls off a submission upset?
As the ELO gap grows, the favored fighter finishes opponents by submission far more often — and almost never gets submitted.
| ELO Gap | Matches | Fav Sub% | Got Sub% | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-49 | 8,897 | 36% | 16% | 2:1 |
| 50-99 | 6,035 | 34% | 18% | 2:1 |
| 100-149 | 4,146 | 41% | 13% | 3:1 |
| 150-199 | 2,992 | 46% | 9% | 5:1 |
| 200-249 | 2,136 | 52% | 6% | 8:1 |
| 250-299 | 1,532 | 56% | 4% | 13:1 |
| 300-349 | 1,023 | 60% | 2% | 26:1 |
| 350-399 | 642 | 62% | 2% | 33:1 |
| 400-449 | 418 | 63% | 1% | 52:1 |
| 450-499 | 252 | 67% | 2% | 34:1 |
| 500+ | 135 | 73% | 2% | 33:1 |
At a 300+ point gap: the favorite submits 60% of the time and gets submitted only 2% — a 26:1 ratio. By 400+ points it reaches 52:1.
Athletes with the highest submission rate among those with 20+ wins. This list features many PGF competitors — a sub-only league that naturally rewards finishers. Athletes like Kyle Chambers, Travis Haven, and Kevin Beuhring are valued by PGF precisely because when they win, it's almost always by submission. That said, the list also includes elite athletes who finish opponents at the highest levels — Gordon Ryan, Luke Griffith, and Roosevelt Sousa dominate through positional control, not just leg locks.
| Athlete | ELO | Wins | By Sub | Sub Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Hicks | 1677 | 21 | 21 | 100% |
| Helder Rodrigues | 2047 | 22 | 22 | 100% |
| Jayden Groner | 1787 | 26 | 25 | 96% |
| Joshua Lorton | 1546 | 23 | 22 | 96% |
| Elijah Carlton | 1867 | 20 | 19 | 95% |
| Kyle Chambers | 1840 | 29 | 27 | 93% |
| Anthony Robinson | 1947 | 42 | 39 | 93% |
| Jason Rau | 1874 | 33 | 30 | 91% |
| David Stoilescu | 1849 | 31 | 28 | 90% |
| Yona Cardenas | 1710 | 20 | 18 | 90% |
| Travis Haven | 1757 | 20 | 18 | 90% |
| Luke Griffith | 2176 | 38 | 34 | 89% |
| Kevin Beuhring | 1787 | 27 | 24 | 89% |
| Roosevelt Sousa | 2057 | 24 | 21 | 88% |
| Derek Rayfield | 1807 | 23 | 20 | 87% |
Athletes who almost never get submitted, even in defeat.
| Athlete | ELO | Losses | By Sub | Sub Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Frazatto | 1958 | 10 | 0 | 0% |
| Vinny Magalhaes | 2308 | 17 | 0 | 0% |
| Charles Negromonte | 1943 | 10 | 0 | 0% |
| Vince Barbosa | 1765 | 11 | 0 | 0% |
| Deandre Corbe | 2101 | 11 | 0 | 0% |
| Luis Diaz | 1638 | 10 | 0 | 0% |
| Oliver Taza | 2025 | 47 | 1 | 2% |
| Anthony Robinson | 1947 | 15 | 1 | 7% |
| De'Alonzio Jackson | 2030 | 12 | 1 | 8% |
| Yuri Simoes | 2318 | 12 | 1 | 8% |
When a lower-rated fighter submits a much higher-rated opponent (200+ ELO gap). Large gaps often mean the winner was new to the system or rising fast — but some are genuine surprises, like Eddie Bravo triangling Royler Gracie at ADCC 2003 or Antonio Carlos Jr. catching Garry Tonon with a flying triangle.
| Winner | Loser | Odds | Method | Weight | Event | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Kerimov* | Dean Lister | 3.6% | shoulder lock | ABS | Berkut 2 | 2015 |
| Raajus Dewan* | PJ Barch | 4.6% | submission | -83 kg | Portland Open 2026 | 2026 |
| Leonardo Ortiz* | Diogo Reis | 4.6% | submission | -76 kg | Brazil Open Petropolis | 2025 |
| Eddie Bravo* | Royler Gracie* | 5.2% | triangle | -66 kg | ADCC Worlds 2003 | 2003 |
| Anakin McMahan* | Abraham La Montagne | 6.0% | submission | ABS | Scottsdale Open | 2023 |
| Matheus Klem Ramos Rosa* | Carlos Henrique | 6.5% | submission | -60 kg | Brazil Open Macae | 2025 |
| Victor L. Matos Rodrigues* | João Victor* | 6.9% | submission | ABS | Brazil Open Natal | 2025 |
| Antonio Carlos Jr.* | Garry Tonon | 6.9% | flying triangle | ABS | SUG 3 | 2017 |
| Helder Rodrigues* | Abraham La Montagne | 6.9% | submission | ABS | Las Vegas Open 2024 | 2024 |
| Jose Jurema* | Mario Gonzalez | 8.2% | armbar | ABS | Midwest Finishers 12 | 2023 |
| Josh Barnett* | Dean Lister | 8.4% | neck crank | ABS | Metamoris 4 | 2014 |
| Thiago Abreu* | Murilo Santana | 8.5% | guillotine | -82 kg | IBJJF No-Gi Worlds | 2011 |
| Aaron Sheffield* | Luccas Lira | 8.9% | submission | ABS | Orlando Open 2024 | 2024 |
| Lachlan Giles* | Rany Yahya* | 9.4% | submission | 170 lbs | EBI 5 | 2015 |
* = provisional rating (<10 matches in system at the time). Large ELO gaps often reflect new/rising competitors whose rating hasn't caught up (e.g. Helder Rodrigues, Leonardo Ortiz) or veterans past their prime (Dean Lister at Berkut). The most famous genuine surprises include Eddie Bravo vs Royler Gracie and Lachlan Giles vs Rany Yahya.
Selected submission upsets at ADCC Worlds and CJI — some of the most memorable moments in grappling history. "Win Odds" is the ELO-implied chance of winning by any method. "Sub Odds" is how often an underdog actually wins by submission at that rating gap — derived from the Got Sub% column in the table above.
| Winner | Loser | Win Odds | Sub Odds | Method | Event | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Bravo* | Royler Gracie | 5% | ~1% | triangle | ADCC Worlds 2003 | 2003 |
| Haisam Rida | Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu | 11% | ~2% | armbar | ADCC Worlds 2022 | 2022 |
| Ffion Davies* | Bia Mesquita | 16% | ~5% | armbar | ADCC Worlds 2019 | 2019 |
| Taylor Pearman | Giancarlo Bodoni | 17% | ~5% | heel hook | CJI #2 | 2025 |
| Kaynan Duarte* | Pablo Popovitch | 18% | ~5% | submission | ADCC Worlds 2017 | 2017 |
| Eoghan O'Flanagan | Mason Fowler | 19% | ~5% | heel hook | ADCC Worlds 2022 | 2022 |
| Michael Pixley | Nicholas Meregali | 20% | ~7% | d'arce choke | ADCC Worlds 2024 | 2024 |
| Lucas Kanard* | Victor Hugo | 20% | ~7% | heel hook | CJI #1 | 2024 |
| Gordon Ryan* | Roberto "Cyborg" Abreu | 21% | ~5% | inside heel hook | ADCC Worlds 2017 | 2017 |
| Braulio Estima* | Marcelo Garcia | 23% | ~7% | arm triangle | ADCC Worlds 2009 | 2009 |
| Mateusz Szczecinski | William Tackett | 25% | ~9% | leglock | ADCC Worlds 2022 | 2022 |
| Craig Jones* | Leandro Lo | 25% | ~9% | rear-naked choke | ADCC Worlds 2017 | 2017 |
| Lachlan Giles | Kaynan Duarte | 27% | ~9% | inside heel hook | ADCC Worlds 2019 | 2019 |
* = provisional rating at the time. Eddie Bravo's triangle on Royler was roughly a 1-in-100 outcome. ADCC 2017 launched two careers: Gordon Ryan heel hooking Cyborg (~5% sub odds) and Craig Jones RNC'ing Leandro Lo (~9%). Lachlan Giles' heel hook run at ADCC 2019 — catching Kaynan, then Mahamed Aly and Erberth Santos — may be the greatest underdog performance in ADCC history.
Data from 38,665 matches across 1,164 events (1998-2026). Ratings use standard ELO with margin-of-victory scoring. Full methodology